From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit

[Barman]

At least I know what 'no deal' means.  Unsurprisingly it means no deal which means no rights to fly.  That's why I know 'no deal' is the boast of feckwittery but hey ho the Rees-Moggaristas just love posturing for such.

I wanted to think about this for a bit rather than making a knee-jerk reaction…

So, there must be thousands of flights every day that either take off from the EU to non-EU destinations or arrive in the EU from non-EU countries.

Few of those countries have ‘special deals’ with the EU, few of them give the EU access to their fisheries, few of them have regulatory compliance, etc. etc. But it works, the flying thing.

So there is no practical reason why flights from the UK shouldn’t land in the EU, no safety issues, no regulatory issues, etc. We can fly there the day before ‘leave’ there is no earthly reason why we can’t fly there the day after.

The only possible reason why a ‘no deal’ scenario should restrict flights to the EU is a desire by the EU to ‘punish’ the UK and set an example to the EU27. There is no other reasonable explanation why flights to/from the EU should be limited because of access to the UK fisheries, the NI border on any other barrier that the EU is trying to erect…

And who would it ‘punish’…?

Take Cyprus for instance; she has a massive tourist industry based on arrivals from the UK. Every year since before the partition in 1974 thousands, probably hundreds of thousands of tourists from the UK arrive for their summer hols and spend millions of €uros.

A huge industry is based around their arrival each year – hotels, shops, restaurants, bars, water-sports, etc. Even now, I can see fields full of hire cars waiting for the new season to start at the Easter holidays…

How will Cyprus react to being told that they can accept Russian aircraft direct from Moscow (which fly though illegal occupied area airspace to get here) but cannot now accept flights from the UK?

Imagine the effect on the economy, thousands of job losses, business failures, millions of litres of wine and beer un-drunk and a crash in the property market. Apey’s wedding business a distant memory as couples find it too difficult to fly to Cyprus and choose another destination.

How will the economy of the EU react to UK holidaymakers spending their £s in non-EU countries because it is just too difficult to fly there…?

And remember, huge amounts of trans Atlantic flights transit UK airspace. A reciprocal ban on European flights entering UK airspace would cause huge disruption and additional costs to European carriers…

So yeah, if the EU chooses to force the UK into a no-deal situation by making unreasonable demands just because we opted to leave the club then they certainly have it within their powers to impose ‘no fly’ to the EU.

But that isn’t a situation that would be painless to the EU27.

It is however another good reason for leaving.

[Steve]

Flights access is one of those areas that should be a non issue as there really is no agenda served by imposing such a harsh hard Brexit but yes technically so many areas go tits up if we really do what Rees-Mogg wants (how could the brilliant William Rees-Mogg have fathered such a snotty self interested shit?)

And if the likes of Boris and Fox continue to taunt the EU with their fuckwittery then who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry"  Yes Cyprus would be hurt by that.

There's a decent Brexit deal to be had if this government stops acting like fuckwits.  There is no way Brexit will ever be a great cake and eat it success in anything other than emotional terms but it doesn't have to be a disaster for so many.  And while an 8% relative turn down from hard brexit may actually be no difference for most, it'll be utter misery for something like 10% of the UK.  And only someone who wants revolution would see that as good.

Sorry but I have very little confidence the May/Boris/Fox gang will ever act sensibly so I prefer a route to a further referendum just like Farage said would be necessary with a 52:48 vote.  Not that the Electoral Commission have even yet given a clean bill of health to the last one.  Very much the opposite.

The other option is give David Davis a gun and a cast iron alibi.  He shoots Fox and Boris, gets May to resign in his favour at gunpoint and he then sacks Dreadsom, Gove etc and negotiates the sensible Brexit deal everyone will dislike a bit but very few will really hate

[Barman]

Flights access is one of those areas that should be a non issue as there really is no agenda served by imposing such a harsh hard Brexit but yes technically so many areas go tits up if we really do what Rees-Mogg wants (how could the brilliant William Rees-Mogg have fathered such a snotty self interested shit?)

And if the likes of Boris and Fox continue to taunt the EU with their fuckwittery then who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry"  Yes Cyprus would be hurt by that.

There's a decent Brexit deal to be had if this government stops acting like fuckwits.  There is no way Brexit will ever be a great cake and eat it success in anything other than emotional terms but it doesn't have to be a disaster for so many.  And while an 8% relative turn down from hard brexit may actually be no difference for most, it'll be utter misery for something like 10% of the UK.  And only someone who wants revolution would see that as good.

Sorry but I have very little confidence the May/Boris/Fox gang will ever act sensibly so I prefer a route to a further referendum just like Farage said would be necessary with a 52:48 vote.  Not that the Electoral Commission have even yet given a clean bill of health to the last one.  Very much the opposite.

The other option is give David Davis a gun and a cast iron alibi.  He shoots Fox and Boris, gets May to resign in his favour at gunpoint and he then sacks Dreadsom, Gove etc and negotiates the sensible Brexit deal everyone will dislike a bit but very few will really hate

So 'no deal' doesn't mean 'no fly' then...?

You remoaners do make I larf... 

[Steve]

Flights access is one of those areas that should be a non issue as there really is no agenda served by imposing such a harsh hard Brexit but yes technically so many areas go tits up if we really do what Rees-Mogg wants (how could the brilliant William Rees-Mogg have fathered such a snotty self interested shit?)

And if the likes of Boris and Fox continue to taunt the EU with their fuckwittery then who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry"  Yes Cyprus would be hurt by that.

There's a decent Brexit deal to be had if this government stops acting like fuckwits.  There is no way Brexit will ever be a great cake and eat it success in anything other than emotional terms but it doesn't have to be a disaster for so many.  And while an 8% relative turn down from hard brexit may actually be no difference for most, it'll be utter misery for something like 10% of the UK.  And only someone who wants revolution would see that as good.

Sorry but I have very little confidence the May/Boris/Fox gang will ever act sensibly so I prefer a route to a further referendum just like Farage said would be necessary with a 52:48 vote.  Not that the Electoral Commission have even yet given a clean bill of health to the last one.  Very much the opposite.

The other option is give David Davis a gun and a cast iron alibi.  He shoots Fox and Boris, gets May to resign in his favour at gunpoint and he then sacks Dreadsom, Gove etc and negotiates the sensible Brexit deal everyone will dislike a bit but very few will really hate

So 'no deal' doesn't mean 'no fly' then...? . . .

Read it again - no deal as in "who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry" very much means no fly

You remoaners do make I larf... 

Well Brexshitters make me 


Here's a word I recommend all to look at the meaning of:  pyrrhic

[Barman]

Well Brexshitters make me 

Good! 

What is it with remoaners that you constantly have to try and belittle or insult everybody that voted a different way to you...?

I see it on the forums over here, this apparently genuine loathing of politicians on the other side... It is quite bizarre.

[Steve]

Well Brexshitters make me 

Good! 

What is it with remoaners that you constantly have to try and belittle or insult everybody that voted a different way to you...?

I see it on the forums over here, this apparently genuine loathing of politicians on the other side... It is quite bizarre.

You what?   

Best pursue this via PM.  No guilt here

[The Moan Ranger]

easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.

Remoaners will always blame Brexit for anything that suits.

[Barman]

easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.

Remoaners will always blame Brexit for anything that suits.

Precisely! 

[Steve]

easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.  . .

And that's the obvious tactic:  assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline

Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country'  so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK.  That's not good for the UK is it?

And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante?  Bugger all or even less

And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same

[Barman]

easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.  . .

And that's the obvious tactic:  assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline

Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country'  so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK.  That's not good for the UK is it?

And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante?  Bugger all or even less

And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same

Why would EasyJet have to move taxable revenue from the UK...?

Do all the American airlines do so to enable access to the EU?

I'm flying in/out of Larnaca with Emirates - they have operations here but I'm fairly sure they haven't made the EU their profit base to gain access to EU airspace...

[Steve]

easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.  . .

And that's the obvious tactic:  assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline

Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country'  so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK.  That's not good for the UK is it?

And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante?  Bugger all or even less

And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same

Why would EasyJet have to move taxable revenue from the UK...?

Do all the American airlines do so to enable access to the EU?

I'm flying in/out of Larnaca with Emirates - they have operations here but I'm fairly sure they haven't made the EU their profit base to gain access to EU airspace...

Are Emirates allowed to fly between two EU states?     But Easyjet need to

Larnaca to Dubai would be between the EU and the host country of the airline just like US airlines flying US to the EU are.  That's a standard flight routes agreement

But you don't get a licence to fly between EU states unless your principal place of business is in an EU country.  And the tax and employment goes to the country where that principal place of business is.  Do I have to go google this to find proof?

 

[Barman]

easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts Cs, not Brexit.  . .

And that's the obvious tactic:  assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline

Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country'  so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK.  That's not good for the UK is it?

And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante?  Bugger all or even less

And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same

Why would EasyJet have to move taxable revenue from the UK...?

Do all the American airlines do so to enable access to the EU?

I'm flying in/out of Larnaca with Emirates - they have operations here but I'm fairly sure they haven't made the EU their profit base to gain access to EU airspace...

Are Emirates allowed to fly between two EU states?     But Easyjet need to

Larnaca to Dubai would be between the EU and the host country of the airline just like US airlines flying US to the EU are.  That's a standard flight routes agreement

But you don't get a licence to fly between EU states unless your principal place of business is in an EU country.  And the tax and employment goes to the country where that principal place of business is.  Do I have to go google this to find proof?

Steve, do as you wish...

Back to my original point, the idea that there will be no UK/EU flights 'because Brexit' simply makes no sense and would punish the EU as much as the UK.

As an aside, this just popped up - very interesting report...

[Steve]

It's over when it's over.  I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it.  I say again there is a decent deal to be had. 

You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route

- flights to and from the EU

- flights between two EU countries

Very different rules apply.  Easyjet need to do both types of flight.  How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know

[Barman]

It's over when it's over.  I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it.  I say again there is a decent deal to be had. 

You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route

- flights to and from the EU

- flights between two EU countries

Very different rules apply.  Easyjet need to do both types of flight.  How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know

I'm not conflating anything...

We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.

We've established (thanks TMR)  that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU.

We know that all of the regulatory/safety compliance is already in place.

So the only reason for things not to continue as they are is to punish the UK/set an example to the EU27. Which as I pointed out earlier would cause as much (or possibly more) pain to the EU27 than it does to the UK.

Thankfully, according to Steven Woolfe there is a much more pragmatic approach to the negotiations behind closed doors than some of the media would have us believe...

[Steve]

It's over when it's over.  I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it.  I say again there is a decent deal to be had. 

You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route

- flights to and from the EU

- flights between two EU countries

Very different rules apply.  Easyjet need to do both types of flight.  How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know

I'm not conflating anything...

We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.

We've established (thanks TMR)  that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .

No we haven't

Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model?   Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us.  £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.