From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit

[Barman]

It's over when it's over.  I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it.  I say again there is a decent deal to be had. 

You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route

- flights to and from the EU

- flights between two EU countries

Very different rules apply.  Easyjet need to do both types of flight.  How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know

I'm not conflating anything...

We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.

We've established (thanks TMR)  that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .

No we haven't

Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model?   Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us.  £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.

CEO Michael O’Leary says he wants to make people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays”

Ryanair is threatening to ground its planes to persuade voters to “rethink” Brexit .

Michael O’Leary, the budget airline’s chief executive, said he wants to “create an opportunity” by making people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays.”

He told an audience of airline leaders in Brussels: “I think it’s in our interests – not for a long period of time – that the aircraft are grounded.

“It’s only when you get to that stage where you’re going to persuade the average British voter that you were lied to in the entire Brexit debate.

“You were promised you could leave the EU and everything would stay the same. The reality is you can leave the EU, yes that’s your choice, but everything will fundamentally change.”

Mr O’Leary warned that there would be a “real crisis” as flights between the UK and the EU are disrupted after Brexit.

He said: “When you begin to realise that you’re no longer going to have cheap holidays in Portugal or Spain or Italy, you’ve got to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland as your only holiday options, maybe we’ll begin to rethink the whole Brexit debate.

“They were misled and I think we have to create an opportunity.”

EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren, who was on stage alongside Mr O’Leary, interrupted him to say: “If you start grounding your planes, I’m flying.”

I'm guessing he knows what he is talking about... 

[Steve]

It's over when it's over.  I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it.  I say again there is a decent deal to be had. 

You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route

- flights to and from the EU

- flights between two EU countries

Very different rules apply.  Easyjet need to do both types of flight.  How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know

I'm not conflating anything...

We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.

We've established (thanks TMR)  that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .

No we haven't

Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model?   Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us.  £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.

CEO Michael O’Leary says he wants to make people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays”

Ryanair is threatening to ground its planes to persuade voters to “rethink” Brexit .

Michael O’Leary, the budget airline’s chief executive, said he wants to “create an opportunity” by making people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays.”

He told an audience of airline leaders in Brussels: “I think it’s in our interests – not for a long period of time – that the aircraft are grounded.

“It’s only when you get to that stage where you’re going to persuade the average British voter that you were lied to in the entire Brexit debate.

“You were promised you could leave the EU and everything would stay the same. The reality is you can leave the EU, yes that’s your choice, but everything will fundamentally change.”

Mr O’Leary warned that there would be a “real crisis” as flights between the UK and the EU are disrupted after Brexit.

He said: “When you begin to realise that you’re no longer going to have cheap holidays in Portugal or Spain or Italy, you’ve got to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland as your only holiday options, maybe we’ll begin to rethink the whole Brexit debate.

“They were misled and I think we have to create an opportunity.”

EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren, who was on stage alongside Mr O’Leary, interrupted him to say: “If you start grounding your planes, I’m flying.”

I'm guessing he knows what he is talking about... 

Perhaps you missed this

Given that there is a range of other and far superior budget airlines I wonder if this will end up being O'Leary's Ratner's moment....? 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/03/07/ryanair-boss-threatens-end-cheap-holidays-make-britain-rethink-brexit-7367981/

O'Leary would do or say anything for publicity.   If he said grass was green or any other truth it would only be by random chance he said something right

He'd probably even climb on a roof and fall off it

[Barman]

It's over when it's over.  I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it.  I say again there is a decent deal to be had. 

You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route

- flights to and from the EU

- flights between two EU countries

Very different rules apply.  Easyjet need to do both types of flight.  How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know

I'm not conflating anything...

We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.

We've established (thanks TMR)  that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .

No we haven't

Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model?   Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us.  £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.

CEO Michael O’Leary says he wants to make people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays”

Ryanair is threatening to ground its planes to persuade voters to “rethink” Brexit .

Michael O’Leary, the budget airline’s chief executive, said he wants to “create an opportunity” by making people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays.”

He told an audience of airline leaders in Brussels: “I think it’s in our interests – not for a long period of time – that the aircraft are grounded.

“It’s only when you get to that stage where you’re going to persuade the average British voter that you were lied to in the entire Brexit debate.

“You were promised you could leave the EU and everything would stay the same. The reality is you can leave the EU, yes that’s your choice, but everything will fundamentally change.”

Mr O’Leary warned that there would be a “real crisis” as flights between the UK and the EU are disrupted after Brexit.

He said: “When you begin to realise that you’re no longer going to have cheap holidays in Portugal or Spain or Italy, you’ve got to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland as your only holiday options, maybe we’ll begin to rethink the whole Brexit debate.

“They were misled and I think we have to create an opportunity.”

EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren, who was on stage alongside Mr O’Leary, interrupted him to say: “If you start grounding your planes, I’m flying.”

I'm guessing he knows what he is talking about... 

Perhaps you missed this

Given that there is a range of other and far superior budget airlines I wonder if this will end up being O'Leary's Ratner's moment....? 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/03/07/ryanair-boss-threatens-end-cheap-holidays-make-britain-rethink-brexit-7367981/

O'Leary would do or say anything for publicity.   If he said grass was green or any other truth it would only be by random chance he said something right

He'd probably even climb on a roof and fall off it

So it is all a publicity stunt...?

Nothing to see here then, move on business as usual. 

[Steve]

Mostly publicity stunt but there is a risk of impairment of Ryanair's business model and that's probably at the heart of Leary's hyperbole

On the wider matter this from my earlier PM

_________________________ from PM to BM ___________________________________

PS if you want to know what I really think is the In/Out position here's an on the record outline of it. http://w11.zetaboards.com/UK_Debate_Mk_2/single/?p=10092440&t=30509537

with a later post:

Well no one has challenged the analysis of the OP

So here's my conclusion

IF you believe the UK can have a significantly beneficial trading future outside the EU and/or you believe that the EU migration would have continued unmitigated then you should be a Leaver

OR

IF you believe the UK will significantly lose out on beneficial trade outside the EU and/or you believe that the EU migration would decline to tolerable levels then you should be a Remainer

Just about all the rest is minor or false

____________________________________________________________________________________________
My real issue is there is no evidence any of May, Fox or Boris could get us that "significantly beneficial trading future outside the EU" if they found it stuffed up their arse

David Davis would stand a chance if they'd just resign, die or perhaps preferably just shut up trying to appease Rees-Mogg

[Barman]

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see if he really does ground all the planes or not won't we...?

[Steve]

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see if he really does ground all the planes or not won't we...?

I wouldn't hold your breath

[Grumpmeister]

Was thinking about this the other day and I realised that the EU has even more to lose than tourism from flights from the UK. The Civil Aviation Authority is the third largest entity of it's kind in the world and governs a significant area, one that transatlantic flights from EU countries desperately need access in order to keep costs down. Losing access to that airspace would dramatically increase the length of flights leading to increased fuel costs and reduced turnaround meaning less flights which will in turn drive the prices up.

[Steve]

Was thinking about this the other day and I realised that the EU has even more to lose than tourism from flights from the UK. The Civil Aviation Authority is the third largest entity of it's kind in the world and governs a significant area, one that transatlantic flights from EU countries desperately need access in order to keep costs down. Losing access to that airspace would dramatically increase the length of flights leading to increased fuel costs and reduced turnaround meaning less flights which will in turn drive the prices up.

I'll say it again it's not the flights to and from the UK from airlines of either the UK or other country that's the real risk - well assuming the Jihadist wing of Rees Moggerisism doesn't get their idiot 'make it as hard as possible and make it now' wish - but how does RyanAir (or Norwegian etc) get permission to fly UK to say Paris if the EU says UK airlines can't sell Rome to Paris flights.  Air Canada even with the CETA treaty isn't allow to sell tickets from London to Paris let alone Rome Paris on its planes is it?

[Grumpmeister]

In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.

[Steve]

In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.

Nope

In or out of an EU airport to/from country of origin is a bilateral

Between airports not of the country of origin is single market access.  Canada (which I just picked as an example) doesn't have single market access, if we don't negotiate it than the same issues start to apply to our airlines and EU ones

Brexit is not simple, the devil is always in details the public and politicians here and in the EU didn't want to think about but will bite them in the bum if they don't watch it.

[Grumpmeister]

In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.

Nope

In or out of an EU airport to/from country of origin is a bilateral

Between airports not of the country of origin is single market access.  Canada (which I just picked as an example) doesn't have single market access, if we don't negotiate it than the same issues start to apply to our airlines and EU ones

Brexit is not simple, the devil is always in details the public and politicians here and in the EU didn't want to think about but will bite them in the bum if they don't watch it.

In the case of any airline based outside of the EU trying to purchase route licenses into France even from other airports within the EU would still end up 'requiring' a 'bilateral' agreement for one very important reason. The largest French airline is Air France-KLM and is part owned by the state (I believe the current stake is somewhere between 15% and 20%). Given that there are already a number of examples of the French government ignoring EU laws and regulations (Shengen comes to mind straight off the bat as the Calais camps would never have existed under the terms of the agreement because the occupants would have already been settled elsewhere) do you really think that France wouldn't put it's own interests first.

But getting back to what I initially said, and I may be being overly optimistic here, but anyone in the EU with a hint of common sense connected to the Route licenses will see an immediate and massive economic impact from shutting down flights from the UK, and even more so when in response the CAA airspace is restricted. To give you an idea of how big an impact it will be, a flight from Paris to Washington DC is currently around 6200km but without access to UK airspace and having to reroute via say Madrid you end up travelling around 7150km instead, a flight from Berlin to Washington DC is around 6720km and going via Madrid would add approximately 1860km. Given the additional operating costs I can't see the airlines being able to justify this economically so you will most likely end up with a much smaller number of transatlantic flights from only one or two airports, having looked at the CAA map I'd say most likely flying from Madrid or Barcelona as you can arc flights from those two airports around UK airspace fairly easily without adding too much to the flight duration.

If that was to happen, given the State of Spain at the moment this could (and quite likely would) have a massive negative impact on the economies of France and Germany. Rampant unemployment and a government desperate for an influx of capital would make relocating business from Paris, Berlin and Munich to name a few a far more tempting prospect for a lot of multinational and global businesses.

[Barman]

In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.

Nope

In or out of an EU airport to/from country of origin is a bilateral

Between airports not of the country of origin is single market access.  Canada (which I just picked as an example) doesn't have single market access, if we don't negotiate it than the same issues start to apply to our airlines and EU ones

Brexit is not simple, the devil is always in details the public and politicians here and in the EU didn't want to think about but will bite them in the bum if they don't watch it.

In the case of any airline based outside of the EU trying to purchase route licenses into France even from other airports within the EU would still end up 'requiring' a 'bilateral' agreement for one very important reason. The largest French airline is Air France-KLM and is part owned by the state (I believe the current stake is somewhere between 15% and 20%). Given that there are already a number of examples of the French government ignoring EU laws and regulations (Shengen comes to mind straight off the bat as the Calais camps would never have existed under the terms of the agreement because the occupants would have already been settled elsewhere) do you really think that France wouldn't put it's own interests first.

But getting back to what I initially said, and I may be being overly optimistic here, but anyone in the EU with a hint of common sense connected to the Route licenses will see an immediate and massive economic impact from shutting down flights from the UK, and even more so when in response the CAA airspace is restricted. To give you an idea of how big an impact it will be, a flight from Paris to Washington DC is currently around 6200km but without access to UK airspace and having to reroute via say Madrid you end up travelling around 7150km instead, a flight from Berlin to Washington DC is around 6720km and going via Madrid would add approximately 1860km. Given the additional operating costs I can't see the airlines being able to justify this economically so you will most likely end up with a much smaller number of transatlantic flights from only one or two airports, having looked at the CAA map I'd say most likely flying from Madrid or Barcelona as you can arc flights from those two airports around UK airspace fairly easily without adding too much to the flight duration.

If that was to happen, given the State of Spain at the moment this could (and quite likely would) have a massive negative impact on the economies of France and Germany. Rampant unemployment and a government desperate for an influx of capital would make relocating business from Paris, Berlin and Munich to name a few a far more tempting prospect for a lot of multinational and global businesses.

Precisely.

It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?"

Where xxxxxxx is anything from having clean water, health and safety regulations, workers rights and flying aeroplanes...

The free market is a restrictive customs union. The fact hat certain xxxxxxxxs will be more difficult/expensive after leaving the EU is yet another negative feature of EU membership - not a positive bonus of the union.

BTW, after saying Ryanair would be grounded, not invest in the UK, etc. did't they recently pour millions into Southampton or somewhere...?

[Steve]

. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .

How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?

We didn't

[Barman]

. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .

How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?

We didn't

Whut? 

Prior to the EU we couldn't fly to anywhere but the UK...?

[Steve]

. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .

How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?

We didn't

Whut? 

Prior to the EU we couldn't fly to anywhere but the UK...?

Not what I said

You couldn't embark and disembark on a UK airline between two airports in non UK countries (the Empire and later Commonwealth may be exception)  And in much of the world the same still applies.