The Virtual Pub
Come Inside... => Saloon Bar => Topic started by: Barman on July 17, 2007, 06:40:41 AM
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I heard this on the radio this morning ? isn?t it farcical. The British Crime Survey reveals that burglaries have fallen by 3% yet everybody knows that there is virtually no point reporting them ? save getting a crime number for the insurance.
Some conservative numpty interviewed suggested getting a dog and remembering to lock doors and windows. In the same interview she confirmed that the law weighs against the householder if he ?attacks? a burglar in their own home and that the burglar is in a strong position to take them to court for assault.
There is now a complete failure of common sense in the UK judicial system. There are not enough police patrols stopping the kind of crime that ruins peoples lives. Criminals are not locked away and they have more rights than property owners attempting to protect their property and families.
The solution ? more police, jail places, stiffer sentences or rights to protect your home and family?
No.
Barricade yourself in your house and get a dog to deter the criminals or make them go elsewhere. Heaven forbid the bloody thing should bite somebody trying to break in though? noooo:
Almost a third of UK householders keep items like golf clubs, cricket bats and heavy torches in case intruders enter their homes, a survey has suggested.
And more than half of them said they were prepared to use these objects, the poll of 4,000 people for the insurance company Cornhill Direct said.
It also reported that only one in five feel safe in their own homes at night.
Source (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6901971.stm)
It suggested that people in Liverpool are most likely to keep potential weapons. Only 7% of Liverpudlians said they felt safe at home at night - well below the national average.
eeek:
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I heard that ..... I thought of a burglar being confronted by Mrs Nick! scared2:
As back up I guess Nick will have a dead badger, a cello and the Boy under his bed.
Sleeps soundly does our Nick despite his proximity to Scallypool.
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I heard that ..... I thought of a burglar being confronted by Mrs Nick! scared2:
shocked003
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I'm amazed by the figure that only 20% feel safe in their own home at night. What sort of namby-pamby nation are we?
Anyway the one time I got burgled it was in the afternoon. confused:
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When Mr Wench is away I keep a cricket bat next to the bed. Although what good I think he'd be is beyond me. ::)
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I'm amazed by the figure that only 20% feel safe in their own home at night. What sort of namby-pamby nation are we?
Anyway the one time I got burgled it was in the afternoon. confused:
I think the kind of namby-pamby nation that sees spiralling crime and nothing done about it. The kind that see burglars, muggers, rapists, et al let free after pitifully short sentences ? if they are incarcerated at all.
We were burgled before we left the UK ? one of the most frightening experiences of my life finding somebody climbing in through the bedroom window with my wife and daughter in the hose ? what if I hadn?t woken up?
It lives with you too ? despite the immediate purchase of a baseball bat for ?protection? you can never really feel comfortable in your house again or for that matter leaving it without checking every door/window multiple times or returning to it not knowing what to expect.
If they?d bothered looking for the criminal that traumatised us he would probably have been let off ? we got a much longer sentence.
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But crime isn't 'spiraling' just the perception and fear of crime.
I can understand that you were traumatised by your experience and would justly be included in those that don't feel safe in their own home but you can't tell me that 80% of the population have encountered an intruder at some point in the past.
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We (Mrs Snoopy and I) used to own a flat in a fairly nice area. All three flats on our floor were turned over during the day when all occupants were at work. We had additional Chubb deadlocks fitted to the front door and the flat was on the fourth and fifth floor so we felt fairly secure. The break in merchants simply jemmied off the door frame. It and the door with it's Chubb locks still locked were placed neatly to one side. Local police were, of course, soooooooo disinterested and sent a young WPC to take details of the items stolen the following day. At that point our neighbour revealed that he was a collector of replica firearms and the burglars had nicked two Uzi sub-machine guns, two automatic pistols and a colt 45 from a box under his bed. Her radio must have nearly melted as she called this info back to HQ and within ten minutes we had the entire serious crime squad crawling over the building. They recovered almost all of our possessions within a week, meanwhile two local post offices and several shops were held up by Uzi wielding gents of an Asian appearance.. Those burglars must have though Allah was indeed good to them that day when they discovered what our neighbour kept under his bed. They missed the real weapons and ammo which he kept in a hidden cupboard behind a wardrobe!
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But crime isn't 'spiraling' just the perception and fear of crime.
I can understand that you were traumatised by your experience and would justly be included in those that don't feel safe in their own home but you can't tell me that 80% of the population have encountered an intruder at some point in the past.
I used to live in Maidenhead ? for fifteen years in fact. Got the local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser every week just to see what was going on.
Not only was our perception of crime from ?hearsay? (friends and neighbours being burgled) that it was spiralling but the paper became a weekly catalogue of the terrible state of things. Every week pages and pages of car thefts, burglaries and vandalism.
This was coupled with the closing of local police stations and a dramatic reduction of police on duty ? if I remember correctly five officers for the whole of Windsor and Maidenhead overnight? Quite frankly calling the police for anything became a lottery ? we saw a strange light in the flooded Thames one night and thought somebody might have fallen in but we had to wait an hour for the police to turn up.
So while ?statistics? may not show spiralling crime my own experiences unfortunately do.
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remember ~ "the plural of anecdote is not data" rubschin:
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remember ~ "the plural of anecdote is not data" rubschin:
Meaning? rubschin:
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remember ~ "the plural of anecdote is not data" rubschin:
Meaning? rubschin:
So while ?statistics? may not show spiralling crime my own experiences unfortunately do.
No offence intended but personal perception isn't always the best judge of the facts.
80% (93% in Liverpool eeek:) of people are reported to be afraid at night in their own home yet statistically very few of them would ever be burgled. That's not sayng don't take sensible precautions but just don't be scared.
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The problem is that just because the chances of falling victim to crime are statistically low that doesn?t mean it won?t be you. The chances of winning the lottery are tiny yet millions choose to join in every week because statistically, you have as much chance as everybody else.
The crime figures clearly show that crime is falling yet prisons are full to busting and repeat offenders are let free without punishment. Crime doesn?t happen somewhere else any more, a brief look at the local papers or talk with neighbours shows that people are right to be worried about crime. The public also know that there are less police on duty to protect them and the likelihood of one turning up (or even being able to get an answer from the police answering service if you happen to call in the early hours) are slim.
There is something wrong when law abiding householders have to take ?sensible precautions? which include fitting stronger locks, not leaving windows open at night when it is hot, getting a dog, locking access gates, growing prickly hedges, etc, etc. just to protect their property. These are not misguided perceptions but police advice on what you have to do to secure your home.
My expectation was that the police would protect me and mine ? they did not. That left my family living in fear in our own home.
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Being the other half of the equation relating to our previously personally having become part of the UK crime statistics my own comments are as follows: -
Up until the time we were burgled I ?would? have said I felt reasonably safe in my own home (mainly because we had taken all the necessary reasonable protection measures, such as installation of good locks on windows and doors, installation of a burglar alarm with panic button etc) but (and I put my hands up here) the mistake I made was that because I felt reasonably safe each night I left our small bathroom skylight window open and the mistake we both made was having nice cars and possessions which the soding little blighters felt they had the right to take from us.
The SLB in question apparently (based on the police findings around our house) had probably been casing our property for a while as evidence showed they had moved loose paving stones from one area to another to build themselves a nice little ramp to more easily leg it up over one of the side walls and then climb up the drain pipe through the bathroom window and then into our bedroom.
The police said their feelings were that SLB was either probably on drugs or had a weapon on them which afforded them the balls to enter our property whilst they knew we were in asleep in bed and that probably their goal was frighten us enough into handing over the keys to the two vehicles that were parked on our driveway.
When I awoke because Barman was yelling abuse at the SLB (SLB then literally standing at the foot of our bed staring down at us) and then chased the SLB across our bedroom I was petrified.
The SLB escaped Barman?s clutches (narrowly) by throwing themselves back through the small bathroom window and down the drainpipe ? Barman then continued his chase, but by the time he had got down our stairs and out the front door the SLB was gone.
Why am I so sick (still) about the experience ? not JUST because of the terror the SLB put my family through whilst he conducted his prank, not JUST because I was made to feel and still do actually that it was MY FAULT for wanting to sleep safely in my own house with a small bathroom window open, not JUST because the SLB stole some very personal and precious irreplaceable jewellery which they wouldn?t have given a toss about and would have sold, not JUST because the Police appeared to be totally powerless and basically said no chance of ever catching the SLB or getting anything back but BECAUSE;
I know if Barman had caught him he would have ?had a go? which is totally and utterly outside of his normal non-aggressive nature and who knows where that could have led ? either to Barman perhaps no longer being here because the SLB was armed, or Barman himself forgetting to only use ?reasonable force? when protecting his family and his ending up in Court
For months afterwards it changed us! I slept for ages afterwards with a knife under my pillow and Barman with a baseball bat at his side of the bed. Each time we went out locally I would catch Barman scanning the local younger crowd, not this time playfully ogling tottie but scanning fingers for my lost jewellery ? what if he seen it one day on someone elses fingers and then exploded with anger etc etc.
We have moved on from this episode (actually quite literally moved on because it clinched our decision to leave the UK) and I don?t (won?t) let the SLB episode haunt the rest of our life BUT if ever, EVER, anyone feels they have the bare-arsed right to enter my home again uninvited, scare me and my family almost witless and take what they fancy of our possessions because they feel it?s their right THEN, so help me, I?ll do what I feel is appropriate and take my own chances in Court later on.
I guess you might say I feel quite strongly about this ??.
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Another round of applause Landlady, unfortunately we were burgled 3 times in a month in one house, whist we were out at work, although on one occasion, one of the kids, (in the merchant navy at the time) was home in bed one afternoon. He just looked at the burglar, who then legged it. We eventually moved because I was just not happy there any more. I know I would have a go, I know I should not, but it is my nature, I act first and then (much later) think about it. I joined in a rumpus in our front garden at 03h00 one dark morning, adding to the ageing process of my other half, who came down and pulled me out of the melee, which turned out to be Cops and robbers, who had abandoned their escape vehicle in the close at the back of us and legged it through our garden. I am a light sleeper and was outside before I was fully awake and in the thick of it. redface:
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I really must wade into this thread as I too feel pretty strongly about it.
I gaze in wonder week after week, month after month and year after year at the ?declining crime rate? and I can?t help but wonder where on earth they get their figures from. As has already been said the prisons are bursting with offenders with literally hundreds if not thousands of offenders being ?let off? because either there is no room for them or too little evidence of simply not enough effort being brought to bear on what the police themselves now describe as a fairly low priority crime with low expectations of a result. What have all these prisoners done, if not robbing? Failed to pay their Council Tax?
Because in the vast majority of cases they fail to catch the offenders, they are less likely to bring any resources to bear and so sends the message that burglary has replaced car theft as the safe option where the potential rewards are high but the actual risks are low ? not least because most householders are too afraid to take any retaliatory action for fear of prosecution or the comfort of being armed and knowing that the house would not have access to any serious weapons, but also in the knowledge that the police mostly won?t be bothered to actually investigate it unless you happen to be someone seriously important.
In short, burglary is almost encouraged. Most people are out working during the day and thieves know that, so the vast majority of burglars are now on the day shift working civilised hours, I have knowledge of subtle burglars that take only a little at a time and treat that house as a cash machine. An awful lot of those people assume that they are getting forgetful and never realise they are being robbed until something of theirs surfaces elsewhere to blow the scam.
Another point well worth mentioning is where people have been cleaned out in a robbery and claim on their insurance only to find that a month later the original robbers return knowing that the house will be full of brand new stuff just waiting to be taken and not much chance that the victims have got around to serial numbers and pictures. The realisation that they have been under tabs by criminals and lined up for a scheduled hit is more than most honest people can bear. It is little wonder that folk are becoming traumatised by it. And they risk losing insurance cover as well!
I have always taken precautions and have been robbed ? in different places - six times to date!
If that is any kind of average then it points to literally millions of robberies per year even if only a small percentage of people are robbed as the records claim, and that in itself is a very serious state of affairs of which I suspect, is not of great importance to the powers-that-be who would much rather occupy the police for more high profile state security tasks ? and looking for celebrity cats!
There are hundreds of houses around where I live and we have one police officer here with a few guests to help out from time to time. We are lumbered with two PCSO?s that won?t attend any ?event? that may end in confrontation and knock off at midnight. Useful!
In fact I believe the crime figures about as much as I believe the unemployment figures or the inflation figures, Massage the figures and everybody will calm down and stop yelling about things that are not important.
I don?t know ANYBODY that has never been burgled. At least once! It is the major topic of conversation wherever I go, that and the stark fact that we are forbidden by law to do anything about it.
It is a great black cloud hanging over the country and will surreptitiously destroy (what?s left of) our society along with divisions and immigration - all issues that need to be given their proper recognition - and stop pretending that we are all idiots.
Or just maybe we are, just for putting up with it. noooo:
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drumroll:
Well said! I have, in the past, worked in the crime arena, and can confirm the steps they take to 'calm down' or allay peoples fears without actually doing a damned thing about it!
When it comes to actually doing something about a crime which is reported to them, unless it involves either celebrities or motoring, then they basically do jack-shit. Unless, as has been pointed out, you have actually done something about it yourself in your role as victim, in which case they'll be round to dish out tea and sympathy to the miscreant prior to banging you up and throwing away the key!
It strikes me the only crime they are interested in is that of being a victim.
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I guess you might say I feel quite strongly about this ??.
I am very sorry to read of your experience which must have been truely horrendous.
However, personalising the issue doesn't take away the fact that even when given the chances of it happening are very small, 4 out of 5 people still say they feel scared in their own home at night.
I don't feel a need to take any extra precautions to secure my home. Even when I lived in North London (where I was burgled) I still made no additional changes to the house.
Statistically I was unlucky to be burgled, just like winning the lottery would be lucky. I don't live my life fearing one or expecting the other to happen.
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It is a fact that those who get burgled are likely to be burgled again within three months. the felons reckon that's about long enough for you to have made your insurance claim and bought all new items so they come back for them.
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I really must wade into this thread as I too feel pretty strongly about it.
I gaze in wonder week after week, month after month and year after year at the ?declining crime rate? and I can?t help but wonder where on earth they get their figures from. As has already been said the prisons are bursting with offenders with literally hundreds if not thousands of offenders being ?let off? because either there is no room for them or too little evidence of simply not enough effort being brought to bear on what the police themselves now describe as a fairly low priority crime with low expectations of a result. What have all these prisoners done, if not robbing? Failed to pay their Council Tax?
Because in the vast majority of cases they fail to catch the offenders, they are less likely to bring any resources to bear and so sends the message that burglary has replaced car theft as the safe option where the potential rewards are high but the actual risks are low ? not least because most householders are too afraid to take any retaliatory action for fear of prosecution or the comfort of being armed and knowing that the house would not have access to any serious weapons, but also in the knowledge that the police mostly won?t be bothered to actually investigate it unless you happen to be someone seriously important.
In short, burglary is almost encouraged. Most people are out working during the day and thieves know that, so the vast majority of burglars are now on the day shift working civilised hours, I have knowledge of subtle burglars that take only a little at a time and treat that house as a cash machine. An awful lot of those people assume that they are getting forgetful and never realise they are being robbed until something of theirs surfaces elsewhere to blow the scam.
Another point well worth mentioning is where people have been cleaned out in a robbery and claim on their insurance only to find that a month later the original robbers return knowing that the house will be full of brand new stuff just waiting to be taken and not much chance that the victims have got around to serial numbers and pictures. The realisation that they have been under tabs by criminals and lined up for a scheduled hit is more than most honest people can bear. It is little wonder that folk are becoming traumatised by it. And they risk losing insurance cover as well!
I have always taken precautions and have been robbed ? in different places - six times to date!
If that is any kind of average then it points to literally millions of robberies per year even if only a small percentage of people are robbed as the records claim, and that in itself is a very serious state of affairs of which I suspect, is not of great importance to the powers-that-be who would much rather occupy the police for more high profile state security tasks ? and looking for celebrity cats!
There are hundreds of houses around where I live and we have one police officer here with a few guests to help out from time to time. We are lumbered with two PCSO?s that won?t attend any ?event? that may end in confrontation and knock off at midnight. Useful!
In fact I believe the crime figures about as much as I believe the unemployment figures or the inflation figures, Massage the figures and everybody will calm down and stop yelling about things that are not important.
I don?t know ANYBODY that has never been burgled. At least once! It is the major topic of conversation wherever I go, that and the stark fact that we are forbidden by law to do anything about it.
It is a great black cloud hanging over the country and will surreptitiously destroy (what?s left of) our society along with divisions and immigration - all issues that need to be given their proper recognition - and stop pretending that we are all idiots.
Or just maybe we are, just for putting up with it. noooo:
Agreed,
Based on any sense of common knowledge the crime statistics bear as much similarity with reality as the inflation statistics.
The statistics also show (I had a quick look on the ?tinterweb this morning) that there are more policemen so everything is okay and we have no need to fear crime. Except we all know that the policemen simply aren?t on duty at our police stations where they used to be or on the beat or has been pointed out more than once on this thread contactable by telephone late at night?. Strange. rubschin:
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I guess you might say I feel quite strongly about this ??.
I am very sorry to read of your experience which must have been truely horrendous.
However, personalising the issue doesn't take away the fact that even when given the chances of it happening are very small, 4 out of 5 people still say they feel scared in their own home at night.
I don't feel a need to take any extra precautions to secure my home. Even when I lived in North London (where I was burgled) I still made no additional changes to the house.
Statistically I was unlucky to be burgled, just like winning the lottery would be lucky. I don't live my life fearing one or expecting the other to happen.
Perhaps when posting my contribution I didn?t explain clearly enough that despite this having happened personally to us (in I would agree perhaps an unusually intrusive and frightening manner surpassing most opportunist burglary occurrences experienced) I did not accept that because of this unfortunate experience I:
Would lie down and be a quivering wreck for the rest of my life. No way is some little shit in a hoodie going to send me onto the Valium, EVER! cussing:
Needed to re-fortress the barricades immediately (although I did think about installing some type form of eletrical current to fry the little bastard?s balls if they dared try it again) and we actually lived in the same property ? for a while on my own ? for a further 9 month plus period without taking any additional unlawful security measures. *Barman made me put back the kitchen knife in its rightful place pronto when he found out it was under my pillow.
My personal opinion on why more and more people are stating that they ?feel scared in their own home at night? isn?t because they are over-reacting to too much viewing Crimewatch or are generally just namby pamby but because they do truly see:
Crime (whatever type, it doesn?t matter it is still crime) happening to more and more people they personally know and care about.
Criminal acts increasing against the old/young and vulnerable ? some of the reported instances actually make me cry.
The youth population apparently turning their acquisition of a criminal record (doesn?t matter for what crime really does it) into the latest ?designer badge? accessory must have.
The spiralling increase in drugs and alcohol abuse in the young.
I know this factor might sound stupid to some but I believe it to be true ? teenage girls now being as foul mouthed, tanked or drugged up and equally violent as their male counterparts, sometimes worse. Let?s just consider what lovely offspring these nubile ladies will be bringing to the next generation shall we. noooo:
The decline of what was once called the ?work ethic? in the young (and other poncers of any age, creed or nationality) who believe the benefits system is there to be milked and that it is their god given right to do so cussing:
If I have offended anyone with my two rant posts Banghead then I do sincerely apologise ? perhaps I am a tad bitter on this topic after my personal burglary experience.
Okay that?s enough from me ? Sorry in advance this time before I hit the send key redface:
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No need to apologise, this is the place to rant.
No way is some little shit in a hoodie going to send me onto the Valium, EVER!
and I certainly agree with that sentiment. happ096
But (sorry, there's always a 'but' with me confused:) is crime on the increase? or is just the way it's reported now, sensationalised by the media causing a perception that there is an increase?
From the Home Office ~ British Crime Survey data
(https://www.virtual-pub.com/SMF/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.crimestatistics.org.uk%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FBCS_Total_crime_06.gif&hash=4defb72fd4af6be5f22a0641ca2f8af38d588b2d)
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Inflation
June: CPI down to 2.4%, RPI at 4.4%
(https://www.virtual-pub.com/SMF/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.statistics.gov.uk%2Fimages%2Fcharts%2F19.gif&hash=4e7e48269af6fa6ba305845d1f969a9937e6c1f3)
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001
Lies, damned lies and statistics IMHO. whistle:
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001
Lies, damned lies and statistics IMHO. whistle:
::) (with apologies to Berek)
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I have become annoyed with this discussion and done some research myself into the apparently irreconcilable statistics cited by UM against the reality expressed by others of a much higher probability.
The result confirms that there are lies, damned lies and statistics. As usual!
Looking to the tables published by the British Crime Survey I note that 1998 saw a significant change in the ways crimes are recorded, and this fundamental change occurred again in 2002.
The dates of these changes matched curiously with the start and end of the ?statistic bubble? or crime wave recorded between those dates.
The statistics that are presented can distort the perception of what they are really saying; statistics can be manipulated to present the desired view whilst still essentially telling the truth, they can subtlety distort in ways such as stretching or compressing timeline to give a graph a more visually impacting picture which doesn?t stand close scrutiny, but the whole purpose a graphs is to be visually impacting, an overview almost.
A very significant factor is concealed in bare statistical presentation and lies in the perception of actuality. One might be tempted to say only three-quarters of a million domestic burglaries occurred in 2006, on the face of it, really not much to get worried about. On a population level of around 56,000,000 it represents a one in seventy-four chance of being burgled.
But as most people live in family units of about four that translates into a 18 to 1 chance of having their (our) homes burgled ? THIS YEAR.
What the graph is indicating is, that it is recording crime figures year over year since 1988 (in my chart) and noting trends over time, that is, it observes rises and falls in occurrences and doesn?t add them up.
So, whilst it may be statistically true that there is a 1:18 chance of it happening this year, it also records that there has been nearly 53 million burglaries committed since 1988 which also means that ? statistically ? everyone is likely to have been robbed 3 or 4 times each during the last two decades.
This fits pretty well with public experience and perception.
The other point being, that despite the chances of being burgled during the next year is 1:18 the chances of being burgled during the next 20 years changes rather dramatically to 4:1. That is the likelihood of being burgled four times in twenty years unless some fundamental changes take place in the meantime.
Seeing as they are crowing about falling crime rates I wouldn?t hold my breath.
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No need to apologise, this is the place to rant.
No way is some little shit in a hoodie going to send me onto the Valium, EVER!
and I certainly agree with that sentiment. happ096
But (sorry, there's always a 'but' with me confused:) is crime on the increase? or is just the way it's reported now, sensationalised by the media causing a perception that there is an increase?
From the Home Office ~ British Crime Survey data
(https://www.virtual-pub.com/SMF/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.crimestatistics.org.uk%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FBCS_Total_crime_06.gif&hash=4defb72fd4af6be5f22a0641ca2f8af38d588b2d)
As I pointed out earlier, I have some experience in the crime arena having earned a crust at it (not crime, but trying to do something about it) and can confirm what Bouncer points out. They are just playing wth the numbers to make them look good.
I'll give you an example from fairly recently (I'll try and find a link to it and edit it in here if I can)
One school boy got sponsorship for an activity from some 50+ people. He then did what he was trying to do and they coughed up the sponsor money. However, he FAILED to hand it to the organisation it was intended for. Plod got involved and he got done.
How many crimes did plod record as solved?
Any guesses anyone?
One - the boy perpetrating fraud on the organisation?
NO!
50+ some since they say that he perpetrated fraud on 50+ sponsors.
So, they clear up 50+ or so crimes in one hit.
Guess, now, which crime would be recorded as having been committed?
Get the picture? This is a direct result of managing crime by targets. Clear up rates are the new God. That's why motorists are such a popular target. All those pictures on the Gatsos? Each one a cleared up and solved crime.
Then there are all the crimes people don't bother to report as they know that they'll do jack-shit anyway?
I could go on, but my piss is starting to boil.
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Here is the British Crime Survey graph for domestic burglary:
(https://www.virtual-pub.com/SMF/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.crimestatistics.org.uk%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FBCS_Burglary_06.gif&hash=5a59055301a35f9b04eceda4c3eb4f843cffec10)
It shows Bouncer's 750,000 burglaries in 2005-6 but totalling up 1988 - 2006 (by eyeball) gives a figure of about 25m rather than 53m total burglaries cited.
The National Statistics site gives the average household size of 2.7 persons rather than 4. It doesn't include retired people who would probably have households under a two average so it's possible to have a figure closer to half of Bouncer's 4. This would translate as about 1 in 30 chance of a household being burgled in this year.
So we're already down to one or two burglaries per household in the past two decades.
It's also worth noting that based on the 1997 report just under half were failed attempts and in 75% of actual break-ins was anything taken. (although I realise from our hosts experience that could be worse)
So you could say that in the past twenty years you probably didn't have anything stolen from your home.
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Here is the British Crime Survey graph for domestic burglary:
(https://www.virtual-pub.com/SMF/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.crimestatistics.org.uk%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FBCS_Burglary_06.gif&hash=5a59055301a35f9b04eceda4c3eb4f843cffec10)
It shows Bouncer's 750,000 burglaries in 2005-6 but totalling up 1988 - 2006 (by eyeball) gives a figure of about 25m rather than 53m total burglaries cited.
The National Statistics site gives the average household size of 2.7 persons rather than 4. It doesn't include retired people who would probably have households under a two average so it's possible to have a figure closer to half of Bouncer's 4. This would translate as about 1 in 30 chance of a household being burgled in this year.
So we're already down to one or two burglaries per household in the past two decades.
It's also worth noting that based on the 1997 report just under half were failed attempts and in 75% of actual break-ins was anything taken. (although I realise from our hosts experience that could be worse)
So you could say that in the past twenty years you probably didn't have anything stolen from your home.
You strike me as someone willing to accept the statistics at face value - as expected. So they don't include the elderly eh? Well, around where I live the elderly tend to live in semi-sheltered accommodation where there are usually some two to three hundred people amassed, and - had become such a concentrated crime area that they spent several millions of pounds making them like concentration camps. It is universally acknowledged that the elderly are prime targets for robberies because a) they tend to hoard jewellery and other valuables and b) keep the money available hidden around the house and c) are of very likelihood of offering resistance if caught.
Sure, My figures were largely guesswork - I didn't get a grant to fabricate the fabric of gloss that government departments do and I don't have the time- but you know full well that if I were to spend serious time investigating the system of crime reporting it would be rubbished.
My figure of just shy of 33 million (Yeah I exaggerated and said 53 million - so sue me) burglaries were quite simply adding up the governments own figures - you should try it. They also exclude minors. and claim statistically (when they are looking for child funding) a third of the population are minors. so add the elderly in group occupation and children to the equation and your 2.7 seems to swing back closer to my estimation (Theirs too when arguing Council tax figures) but hey who's counting!
They don't seem to be accounting for all the mega-multi occupancy of immigrant households that usually number up to ten to twenty per household - not to mention those that aren't really here are they? - or the multiplicity of flats in a single house rated as a single household.
The 2.7 average figure was delivered to Parliament in a Rover 75. the population was slightly different then. We should all try to keep up.
You only have to look around to see that it is rubbish, Whether one should be afraid or not is a separate issue; but in my time spent out and about, I have yet to meet anyone that has not been burgled at some time - not even you!
in accepting their wonderfully low yearly average of 800,000 robberies of - just - domestic burglaries to realise that in ten years there were at least 8,000,000 and 16,000,000 in twenty and unless there are some really unlucky people out there, that is more than enough to go around the households of the whole population's - including the so-called minorities of the old and the young that put together are the majority - at least when they are banging the pensions drum - they (we) are.
I said 1988 - I meant 1981 redface:
1981 790,000
1982 950,000
1983 1,000,000
1984 1,100,000
1985 1,150,000
1986 1,200,000
1987 1,220,000
1988 1,250,000
1989 1,300,000
1990 1,350,000
1991 1,500,000
1992 1,600,000
1993 1,750,000
1994 1,750,000
1995 1,740,000
1996 1,650,000
1997 1,600,000
1998 1,500,000
1999 1,400,000
2000 1,300,000
2001 1,220,000
2002 980,000
2003 1,000,000
2004 950,000
2005 780,000
2006 733,000
2007
32,763,000
How many households are there in this country?
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001 lol: happy001
Lies, damned lies and statistics IMHO. whistle:
::) (with apologies to Berek)
But these are the same government lies ?statistics? that you rely on for the crime figures?
CPI annual inflation ? the Government?s target measure ? was 2.4 per cent in June, down from 2.5 per cent in May.
The main downward pressure on the CPI annual rate came from average gas and electricity bills which continued to fall this year but rose 12 months ago. There were also large downward effects from cigarettes, where last year?s price increases were not repeated this year, and from audio-visual equipment and related products, with prices falling by more than a year ago, particularly for digital cameras, hi-fi equipment, televisions and pre-recorded DVDs.
Small downward effects also came from a range of other products including personal care appliances and products; insurance premiums; and books, newspapers and stationery.
Including high-tech appliances in the ?shopping basket?, things that people may only buy every five years is surely a cynical government ploy to artificially reduce the inflation figures?
Check out 2.4% and everything seems rosy yet we all know that the things that really count ? mortgage repayments, council tax, food, fuel, etc. ? cost significantly more.
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My figures were largely guesswork
My figure of just shy of 33 million (Yeah I exaggerated and said 53 million - so sue me)
I said 1988 - I meant 1981
eeek:
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Given the tone of this thread, this story (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=469001&in_page_id=1770) from the Daily Mail (I know, I know) might go some way towards explaining the falling crime figures which seem at odds with experiences.
The highlight is:
Small businesses have so little faith in the legal system that they no longer bother reporting crimes that cost them ?19billion a year.
Interesting don't you think? Still believe the figures Mort? If crime is not reported, then the figures will fall, thus giving a false picture.
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The figures come from the British Crime Survey :
How the British Crime Survey (BCS) works
For a variety of reasons, people do not always report crimes to the police - which means they don't get reflected in police recorded crime figures.
The British Crime Survey (BCS) asks people about their actual experiences - and so gives us a more accurate picture of crime levels and trends across England & Wales.
Note: The BCS does not include crimes against businesses or commercial property.
Which makes the Daily Mail article irrelevant on two counts.
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The figures come from the British Crime Survey :
How the British Crime Survey (BCS) works
For a variety of reasons, people do not always report crimes to the police - which means they don't get reflected in police recorded crime figures.
The British Crime Survey (BCS) asks people about their actual experiences - and so gives us a more accurate picture of crime levels and trends across England & Wales.
Note: The BCS does not include crimes against businesses or commercial property.
Which makes the Daily Mail article irrelevant on two counts.
Maybe, but surely the story is indicative? The job I did (Crime Reduction Officer with local authority FWIW - a post sometimes called Community Safety Officer) involved me being party to the ways in which crime statistics were gathered and reported. I was also fully aware of many changes to the way in which the reporting was performed! And, I can tell you from first hand experience, the one and only aim was to meet targets by finding ways of reducing the numbers. And not by detecting the crimes, but by recording them differently. That applied across the board - business crime, personal crime, burglary, violent crime - the lot.
Their sole aim was to look good for the BCS and others (notably government). All efforts were expended in the areas of the current targets. One year Vehicle Crime was the political hot potato - guess what everyone was doing? Everything they could to get the vehicle crime numbers down and not by actually reducing the number of vehicle crimes necessarily. Meanwhile, burglary (or whatever) which was not one of the hot potatoes got virtually ignored.
That is why I'm so damned cynical about the figures. Because I worked at the pointy end with those figures. You, on the other hand, appear to just be one of those poor misguided individuals who believe everything you see printed emanating from the government. I suppose you also believe that T Bliar had absolutely nothing to do with the 'Cash for Honours' farrago?
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My figures were largely guesswork
My figure of just shy of 33 million (Yeah I exaggerated and said 53 million - so sue me)
I said 1988 - I meant 1981
eeek:
When I say guesswork - of course, what I meant to say was "I used the same methods as the government in compiling the figures.".
whistle:
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My figures were largely guesswork
My figure of just shy of 33 million (Yeah I exaggerated and said 53 million - so sue me)
I said 1988 - I meant 1981
eeek:
When I say guesswork - of course, what I meant to say was "I used the same methods as the government in compiling the figures.".
whistle:
That'll be the old "Wet your finger and hold it up to see which was the wind is blowing" method will it?
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You, on the other hand, appear to just be one of those poor misguided individuals who believe everything you see printed emanating from the government. I suppose you also believe that T Bliar had absolutely nothing to do with the 'Cash for Honours' farrago?
I am not a 'poor misguided individual' and I find your remark rude and condescending.
I am aware that the figures produced may be 'massaged' to suit a particular point of view and are only as good as the quality of the the original data provided. I provide business data for National Statistics myself and although I try, sometimes it's more of a 'guestimate'.
However, the data is not going to to be wildly inaccurate and is a good enough basis to work from.
One person's experience may not reflect reality. As was pointed out, the chances of winning the lottery are very remote but someone does win it almost every week. You shouldn't use that someone's experience to extrapolate your chance of winning.
As I wrote 'Data is not the plural of anecdote'
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You, on the other hand, appear to just be one of those poor misguided individuals who believe everything you see printed emanating from the government. I suppose you also believe that T Bliar had absolutely nothing to do with the 'Cash for Honours' farrago?
I am not a 'poor misguided individual' and I find your remark rude and condescending.
I am aware that the figures produced may be 'massaged' to suit a particular point of view and are only as good as the quality of the the original data provided. I provide business data for National Statistics myself and although I try, sometimes it's more of a 'guestimate'.
However, the data is not going to to be wildly inaccurate and is a good enough basis to work from.
One person's experience may not reflect reality. As was pointed out, the chances of winning the lottery are very remote but someone does win it almost every week. You shouldn't use that someone's experience to extrapolate your chance of winning.
As I wrote 'Data is not the plural of anecdote'
I still can't say I agree with your belief in the data but, like me, you are 100% entitled to your viewpoint. and freedom to voice it.
I'm sure Ghostie didn't mean to be rude or personal.
Let's remember all debate is healthy .............. keeps that grey matter from atrophying razz:
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You, on the other hand, appear to just be one of those poor misguided individuals who believe everything you see printed emanating from the government. I suppose you also believe that T Bliar had absolutely nothing to do with the 'Cash for Honours' farrago?
I am not a 'poor misguided individual' and I find your remark rude and condescending.
I am aware that the figures produced may be 'massaged' to suit a particular point of view and are only as good as the quality of the the original data provided. I provide business data for National Statistics myself and although I try, sometimes it's more of a 'guestimate'.
However, the data is not going to to be wildly inaccurate and is a good enough basis to work from.
One person's experience may not reflect reality. As was pointed out, the chances of winning the lottery are very remote but someone does win it almost every week. You shouldn't use that someone's experience to extrapolate your chance of winning.
As I wrote 'Data is not the plural of anecdote'
Don't get all ruffled Mort, note the words in bold above. I didn't say you were, I said you appear to be.
If you look back over the discussion, I think you'll see why I might have drawn such a conclusion.
I have no doubt about your sincerity, however, others have differing viewpoints, and are just as sincere in their views.
What seems to be sadly lacking is any kind of solid information. I, for one, don't trust a damned thing this government says. They have shown themselves to, at the very least, be economical with the truth on numerous occasions. If they said that today was Wednesday, I'd want independent verification of that!
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I did get a bit ruffled, probably partly due to the liquid lunch I had. Even so, and despite the lack of credibility many people hold with the government I believe that the fear of crime is vastly disproportionate to likelihood of being a victim of crime.
I'm not alone ~ from today's BBC news:
A strategy to move public perception of crime into line with falling figures is due to be launched by ministers.
Despite crime statistics having dropped for the last decade, British people are among the most fearful in Europe.
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I did get a bit ruffled, probably partly due to the liquid lunch I had. Even so, and despite the lack of credibility many people hold with the government I believe that the fear of crime is vastly disproportionate to likelihood of being a victim of crime.
I'm not alone ~ from today's BBC news:
A strategy to move public perception of crime into line with falling figures is due to be launched by ministers.
Despite crime statistics having dropped for the last decade, British people are among the most fearful in Europe.
Mort, you are entirely forgiven on the basis of that liquid lunch - what other sort is there?
However, I still take issue with the bit in bold. The figures may have dropped, but is that really a true and accurate reflection?
The way in which crimes are reported within the police farce (sic) has changed. My experience of that was that the changes had the effect of reducing the 'figures' whilst in no way modifying the reality.
Add to that the fact that more and more people are so utterly deluded with the police that they don't even bother to report things anymore, and sure, the figures will go down. The reality may well be different though, but all the government are interested in is the figures.
For a comparison, look at hospital waiting times (and similar NHS targets). One example of what is being done to 'massage' the figures is this:
Hospital trolleys were re-classified as beds to reduce the apparent waiting time in casualty (I'll try and find the reference). They definitely made that re-classification in order to make the figures match the target.
That is the problem with a target driven culture. More time will be spent 'meeting the targets' (or KPIs if you prefer) than actually doing the job!
That is my problem with it all.
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Living in fear of crime is virtually as bad as being on the receiving end of a crime. Those that suffer at the hands of the criminals and those that fear they will are all victims of crime.
If you are burgled you will experience anger, fear and may even be so traumatised as to want to move away from your violated home. If you live in fear of burglary you can never really feel at peace in your home and that fear follows you wherever you move to. Everybody will experience different levels of fear and everybody will deal with it in their own way.
What the "Man on the Clapham Omnibus" wants is a much more visible police presence on the streets, 24/365.
No amount of fiddled figures or even accurate figures will satisfy the public until they can see the bobbies walking along every street. Home Secretaries et al spouting in Parliament about the money THEY have invested by comparison with the previous incumbent convinces no-one if they cannot see the police officers walking the streets.
More visible bobbies will not necessarily reduce crime but it will give reassurance to the public.
We could then get down to correcting the over-swing of the pendulum towards political correctness and "rights" of criminals and start kicking the shit out of the bastards that mess up so many people's lives by their mere presence.
Of course we could also consider returning to conscription .... a couple of years in the Army would sort some of the modern yoof problems. Paying them to stay on at school doing bugger all except disrupt the lessons for those who are there through choice is not an answer. If they have learned nothing by the age of 16 two more years will make no difference. Bang 'em in the Army and teach them a trade (building Prisons would be a good idea) and let's get back something for our money. Not National Service with a rifle but Service to the Nation with a shovel.
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I see the same debate has kicked off on the BBC website.
Have your say (http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?threadID=6865&&&edition=1&ttl=20070719140658)
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I see the same debate has kicked off on the BBC website.
Have your say (http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?threadID=6865&&&edition=1&ttl=20070719140658)
No point ~ I said the same things, more or less, in "another place" some months ago but got shouted down by a few.
As for spouting on the BEEB blog ~ that'll make no difference at the end of the day.
I'm afraid we have to sink or swim on our own and I'm getting too old and tired of the fight to bother any longer ~ another good reason for moving to North Wales .... fewer people + low crime rates = less fear.
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My skepticism is born of the fact that I was a government employee tasked with the job (amongst other things) of making the facts fit the figures and presenting them for public consumption as burying the bad news in as favourable a way as possible.
I cannot - obviously - mention the material I had to work with, but a phase in my history still haunts me.
I had to prepare a set of figures to reflect a trend which the government of the day wanted to be as positive as possible about the dramatic improvement in the averages. I succeeded in showing a 21% improvement which was 6% better than expected.
The following year there was a change of government and the rules of how the data was collated were changed.
That year my figures showed a 49% worsening of the situation which merited severe government intervention to correct the appalling state of affairs. That culminated in a new Act of Parliament which terminated a government department.
Fair enough, you might say - except - They refused to commission a new set of statistics (economising) and used the very same set of figures of mine from the previous year!
Statistics can say anything you want them to say - Fact!