At least I know what 'no deal' means. Unsurprisingly it means no deal which means no rights to fly. That's why I know 'no deal' is the boast of feckwittery but hey ho the Rees-Moggaristas just love posturing for such.
I wanted to think about this for a bit rather than making a knee-jerk reaction…
So, there must be thousands of flights every day that either take off from the EU to non-EU destinations or arrive in the EU from non-EU countries.
Few of those countries have ‘special deals’ with the EU, few of them give the EU access to their fisheries, few of them have regulatory compliance, etc. etc. But it works, the flying thing.
So there is no practical reason why flights from the UK shouldn’t land in the EU, no safety issues, no regulatory issues, etc. We can fly there the day before ‘leave’ there is no earthly reason why we can’t fly there the day after.
The only possible reason why a ‘no deal’ scenario should restrict flights to the EU is a desire by the EU to ‘punish’ the UK and set an example to the EU27. There is no other reasonable explanation why flights to/from the EU should be limited because of access to the UK fisheries, the NI border on any other barrier that the EU is trying to erect…
And who would it ‘punish’…?
Take Cyprus for instance; she has a massive tourist industry based on arrivals from the UK. Every year since before the partition in 1974 thousands, probably hundreds of thousands of tourists from the UK arrive for their summer hols and spend millions of €uros.
A huge industry is based around their arrival each year – hotels, shops, restaurants, bars, water-sports, etc. Even now, I can see fields full of hire cars waiting for the new season to start at the Easter holidays…
How will Cyprus react to being told that they can accept Russian aircraft direct from Moscow (which fly though illegal occupied area airspace to get here) but cannot now accept flights from the UK?
Imagine the effect on the economy, thousands of job losses, business failures, millions of litres of wine and beer un-drunk and a crash in the property market. Apey’s wedding business a distant memory as couples find it too difficult to fly to Cyprus and choose another destination.
How will the economy of the EU react to UK holidaymakers spending their £s in non-EU countries because it is just too difficult to fly there…?
And remember, huge amounts of trans Atlantic flights transit UK airspace. A reciprocal ban on European flights entering UK airspace would cause huge disruption and additional costs to European carriers…
So yeah, if the EU chooses to force the UK into a no-deal situation by making unreasonable demands just because we opted to leave the club then they certainly have it within their powers to impose ‘no fly’ to the EU.
But that isn’t a situation that would be painless to the EU27.
It is however another good reason for leaving.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 09, 2018, 09:26:19 PM
Flights access is one of those areas that should be a non issue as there really is no agenda served by imposing such a harsh hard Brexit but yes technically so many areas go tits up if we really do what Rees-Mogg wants (how could the brilliant William Rees-Mogg have fathered such a snotty self interested shit?)
And if the likes of Boris and Fox continue to taunt the EU with their fuckwittery then who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry" Yes Cyprus would be hurt by that.
There's a decent Brexit deal to be had if this government stops acting like fuckwits. There is no way Brexit will ever be a great cake and eat it success in anything other than emotional terms but it doesn't have to be a disaster for so many. And while an 8% relative turn down from hard brexit may actually be no difference for most, it'll be utter misery for something like 10% of the UK. And only someone who wants revolution would see that as good.
Sorry but I have very little confidence the May/Boris/Fox gang will ever act sensibly so I prefer a route to a further referendum just like Farage said would be necessary with a 52:48 vote. Not that the Electoral Commission have even yet given a clean bill of health to the last one. Very much the opposite.
The other option is give David Davis a gun and a cast iron alibi. He shoots Fox and Boris, gets May to resign in his favour at gunpoint and he then sacks Dreadsom, Gove etc and negotiates the sensible Brexit deal everyone will dislike a bit but very few will really hate
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 06:04:28 AM
Flights access is one of those areas that should be a non issue as there really is no agenda served by imposing such a harsh hard Brexit but yes technically so many areas go tits up if we really do what Rees-Mogg wants (how could the brilliant William Rees-Mogg have fathered such a snotty self interested shit?)
And if the likes of Boris and Fox continue to taunt the EU with their fuckwittery then who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry" Yes Cyprus would be hurt by that.
There's a decent Brexit deal to be had if this government stops acting like fuckwits. There is no way Brexit will ever be a great cake and eat it success in anything other than emotional terms but it doesn't have to be a disaster for so many. And while an 8% relative turn down from hard brexit may actually be no difference for most, it'll be utter misery for something like 10% of the UK. And only someone who wants revolution would see that as good.
Sorry but I have very little confidence the May/Boris/Fox gang will ever act sensibly so I prefer a route to a further referendum just like Farage said would be necessary with a 52:48 vote. Not that the Electoral Commission have even yet given a clean bill of health to the last one. Very much the opposite.
The other option is give David Davis a gun and a cast iron alibi. He shoots Fox and Boris, gets May to resign in his favour at gunpoint and he then sacks Dreadsom, Gove etc and negotiates the sensible Brexit deal everyone will dislike a bit but very few will really hate
So 'no deal' doesn't mean 'no fly' then...? ::)
You remoaners do make I larf... lol:
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 11:14:46 AM
Flights access is one of those areas that should be a non issue as there really is no agenda served by imposing such a harsh hard Brexit but yes technically so many areas go tits up if we really do what Rees-Mogg wants (how could the brilliant William Rees-Mogg have fathered such a snotty self interested shit?)
And if the likes of Boris and Fox continue to taunt the EU with their fuckwittery then who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry" Yes Cyprus would be hurt by that.
There's a decent Brexit deal to be had if this government stops acting like fuckwits. There is no way Brexit will ever be a great cake and eat it success in anything other than emotional terms but it doesn't have to be a disaster for so many. And while an 8% relative turn down from hard brexit may actually be no difference for most, it'll be utter misery for something like 10% of the UK. And only someone who wants revolution would see that as good.
Sorry but I have very little confidence the May/Boris/Fox gang will ever act sensibly so I prefer a route to a further referendum just like Farage said would be necessary with a 52:48 vote. Not that the Electoral Commission have even yet given a clean bill of health to the last one. Very much the opposite.
The other option is give David Davis a gun and a cast iron alibi. He shoots Fox and Boris, gets May to resign in his favour at gunpoint and he then sacks Dreadsom, Gove etc and negotiates the sensible Brexit deal everyone will dislike a bit but very few will really hate
So 'no deal' doesn't mean 'no fly' then...? ::) . . .
Read it again - no deal as in "who could blame Tusk (the real EU player) if he just said "fuck it, have what you want, call me when you want to say sorry" very much means no fly
Quote
You remoaners do make I larf... lol:
Well Brexshitters make me Banghead
Here's a word I recommend all to look at the meaning of: pyrrhic
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 11:26:46 AM
What is it with remoaners that you constantly have to try and belittle or insult everybody that voted a different way to you...? Shrugs:
I see it on the forums over here, this apparently genuine loathing of politicians on the other side... It is quite bizarre.
You what? ::)
Best pursue this via PM. No guilt here
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: The Moan Ranger on March 10, 2018, 12:51:59 PM
easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.
Remoaners will always blame Brexit for anything that suits.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 01:19:26 PM
easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit.
Remoaners will always blame Brexit for anything that suits.
Precisely! :thumbsup:
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 01:41:12 PM
easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit. . .
And that's the obvious tactic: assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline
Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country' so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK. That's not good for the UK is it?
And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante? Bugger all or even less
And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 01:45:59 PM
easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit. . .
And that's the obvious tactic: assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline
Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country' so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK. That's not good for the UK is it?
And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante? Bugger all or even less
And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same
Why would EasyJet have to move taxable revenue from the UK...?
Do all the American airlines do so to enable access to the EU?
I'm flying in/out of Larnaca with Emirates - they have operations here but I'm fairly sure they haven't made the EU their profit base to gain access to EU airspace...
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 01:58:34 PM
easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts+Cs, not Brexit. . .
And that's the obvious tactic: assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline
Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country' so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK. That's not good for the UK is it?
And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante? Bugger all or even less
And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same
Why would EasyJet have to move taxable revenue from the UK...?
Do all the American airlines do so to enable access to the EU?
I'm flying in/out of Larnaca with Emirates - they have operations here but I'm fairly sure they haven't made the EU their profit base to gain access to EU airspace...
Are Emirates allowed to fly between two EU states? noooo: But Easyjet need to
Larnaca to Dubai would be between the EU and the host country of the airline just like US airlines flying US to the EU are. That's a standard flight routes agreement
But you don't get a licence to fly between EU states unless your principal place of business is in an EU country. And the tax and employment goes to the country where that principal place of business is. Do I have to go google this to find proof?
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 02:05:25 PM
easyJet (and I should know) are not overly worried about Brexit. They have re-registered about 75 airframes to the new "easyJet Europe" in case of the EU acting twattish/slitting their own wrists and are actively seeking new routes to and from the UK. Michael O'Dreary has suggested grounding some of the fleet due to Brexit, yet is still taking new airframes regularly. This is down to Ryanair pilots leaving en masse due to shit Ts Cs, not Brexit. . .
And that's the obvious tactic: assume the EU will allow flights to/from host country as it does with other non EU countries but realise they won't allow the flights between two EU countries by a non EU hosted airline
Easyjet's business model is very much reliant on those 'between two EU country' so it may well move its base and taxable revenue out of the UK. That's not good for the UK is it?
And if UK Easyjet aren't allowed 'between two EU country' flights just what is the prospect we'd allow Ryanair to fly UK to Alicante? Bugger all or even less
And that's why O'Leary is at least slightly worried if the end game for Brexit is 'no deal' or close to same
Why would EasyJet have to move taxable revenue from the UK...?
Do all the American airlines do so to enable access to the EU?
I'm flying in/out of Larnaca with Emirates - they have operations here but I'm fairly sure they haven't made the EU their profit base to gain access to EU airspace...
Are Emirates allowed to fly between two EU states? noooo: But Easyjet need to
Larnaca to Dubai would be between the EU and the host country of the airline just like US airlines flying US to the EU are. That's a standard flight routes agreement
But you don't get a licence to fly between EU states unless your principal place of business is in an EU country. And the tax and employment goes to the country where that principal place of business is. Do I have to go google this to find proof?
Steve, do as you wish...
Back to my original point, the idea that there will be no UK/EU flights 'because Brexit' simply makes no sense and would punish the EU as much as the UK.
As an aside, this just popped up - very interesting report...
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 02:15:26 PM
It's over when it's over. I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it. I say again there is a decent deal to be had.
You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route
- flights to and from the EU
- flights between two EU countries
Very different rules apply. Easyjet need to do both types of flight. How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 02:55:00 PM
It's over when it's over. I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it. I say again there is a decent deal to be had.
You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route
- flights to and from the EU
- flights between two EU countries
Very different rules apply. Easyjet need to do both types of flight. How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know
I'm not conflating anything...
We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.
We've established (thanks TMR) that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU.
We know that all of the regulatory/safety compliance is already in place.
So the only reason for things not to continue as they are is to punish the UK/set an example to the EU27. Which as I pointed out earlier would cause as much (or possibly more) pain to the EU27 than it does to the UK.
Thankfully, according to Steven Woolfe there is a much more pragmatic approach to the negotiations behind closed doors than some of the media would have us believe...
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 03:12:03 PM
It's over when it's over. I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it. I say again there is a decent deal to be had.
You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route
- flights to and from the EU
- flights between two EU countries
Very different rules apply. Easyjet need to do both types of flight. How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know
I'm not conflating anything...
We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.
We've established (thanks TMR) that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .
No we haven't
Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model? Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us. £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 03:36:41 PM
It's over when it's over. I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it. I say again there is a decent deal to be had.
You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route
- flights to and from the EU
- flights between two EU countries
Very different rules apply. Easyjet need to do both types of flight. How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know
I'm not conflating anything...
We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.
We've established (thanks TMR) that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .
No we haven't
Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model? Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us. £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.
Quote from: Michael O’Leary
CEO Michael O’Leary says he wants to make people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays”
Ryanair is threatening to ground its planes to persuade voters to “rethink” Brexit .
Michael O’Leary, the budget airline’s chief executive, said he wants to “create an opportunity” by making people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays.”
He told an audience of airline leaders in Brussels: “I think it’s in our interests – not for a long period of time – that the aircraft are grounded.
“It’s only when you get to that stage where you’re going to persuade the average British voter that you were lied to in the entire Brexit debate.
“You were promised you could leave the EU and everything would stay the same. The reality is you can leave the EU, yes that’s your choice, but everything will fundamentally change.”
Mr O’Leary warned that there would be a “real crisis” as flights between the UK and the EU are disrupted after Brexit.
He said: “When you begin to realise that you’re no longer going to have cheap holidays in Portugal or Spain or Italy, you’ve got to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland as your only holiday options, maybe we’ll begin to rethink the whole Brexit debate.
“They were misled and I think we have to create an opportunity.”
EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren, who was on stage alongside Mr O’Leary, interrupted him to say: “If you start grounding your planes, I’m flying.”
I'm guessing he knows what he is talking about... ;)
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 03:42:56 PM
It's over when it's over. I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it. I say again there is a decent deal to be had.
You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route
- flights to and from the EU
- flights between two EU countries
Very different rules apply. Easyjet need to do both types of flight. How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know
I'm not conflating anything...
We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.
We've established (thanks TMR) that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .
No we haven't
Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model? Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us. £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.
Quote from: Michael O’Leary
CEO Michael O’Leary says he wants to make people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays”
Ryanair is threatening to ground its planes to persuade voters to “rethink” Brexit .
Michael O’Leary, the budget airline’s chief executive, said he wants to “create an opportunity” by making people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays.”
He told an audience of airline leaders in Brussels: “I think it’s in our interests – not for a long period of time – that the aircraft are grounded.
“It’s only when you get to that stage where you’re going to persuade the average British voter that you were lied to in the entire Brexit debate.
“You were promised you could leave the EU and everything would stay the same. The reality is you can leave the EU, yes that’s your choice, but everything will fundamentally change.”
Mr O’Leary warned that there would be a “real crisis” as flights between the UK and the EU are disrupted after Brexit.
He said: “When you begin to realise that you’re no longer going to have cheap holidays in Portugal or Spain or Italy, you’ve got to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland as your only holiday options, maybe we’ll begin to rethink the whole Brexit debate.
“They were misled and I think we have to create an opportunity.”
EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren, who was on stage alongside Mr O’Leary, interrupted him to say: “If you start grounding your planes, I’m flying.”
I'm guessing he knows what he is talking about... ;)
O'Leary would do or say anything for publicity. If he said grass was green or any other truth it would only be by random chance he said something right
He'd probably even climb on a roof and fall off it
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 03:49:54 PM
It's over when it's over. I accepted the result but I cannot accept the wilful incompetence of how May has pursued it. I say again there is a decent deal to be had.
You seem to be conflating the two types of flight route
- flights to and from the EU
- flights between two EU countries
Very different rules apply. Easyjet need to do both types of flight. How an Austrian HQ works for them I do not know
I'm not conflating anything...
We've established that flights are possible to/from EU and non-EU countries.
We've established (thanks TMR) that it is relatively simple for an airline based in a non-EU country to fly within the EU. . .
No we haven't
Is it simple that Easy are establishing a company based in Austria to protect much of their business model? Two sets of overheads and they will have to pay taxes to Austria that would have gone to us. £80 million here, £80 million there pretty soon you're talking real money.
Quote from: Michael O’Leary
CEO Michael O’Leary says he wants to make people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays”
Ryanair is threatening to ground its planes to persuade voters to “rethink” Brexit .
Michael O’Leary, the budget airline’s chief executive, said he wants to “create an opportunity” by making people realise they are “no longer going to have cheap holidays.”
He told an audience of airline leaders in Brussels: “I think it’s in our interests – not for a long period of time – that the aircraft are grounded.
“It’s only when you get to that stage where you’re going to persuade the average British voter that you were lied to in the entire Brexit debate.
“You were promised you could leave the EU and everything would stay the same. The reality is you can leave the EU, yes that’s your choice, but everything will fundamentally change.”
Mr O’Leary warned that there would be a “real crisis” as flights between the UK and the EU are disrupted after Brexit.
He said: “When you begin to realise that you’re no longer going to have cheap holidays in Portugal or Spain or Italy, you’ve got to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland as your only holiday options, maybe we’ll begin to rethink the whole Brexit debate.
“They were misled and I think we have to create an opportunity.”
EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren, who was on stage alongside Mr O’Leary, interrupted him to say: “If you start grounding your planes, I’m flying.”
I'm guessing he knows what he is talking about... ;)
O'Leary would do or say anything for publicity. If he said grass was green or any other truth it would only be by random chance he said something right
He'd probably even climb on a roof and fall off it
So it is all a publicity stunt...?
Nothing to see here then, move on business as usual. cloud9:
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 03:58:12 PM
Mostly publicity stunt but there is a risk of impairment of Ryanair's business model and that's probably at the heart of Leary's hyperbole
On the wider matter this from my earlier PM
_________________________ from PM to BM ___________________________________
PS if you want to know what I really think is the In/Out position here's an on the record outline of it. http://w11.zetaboards.com/UK_Debate_Mk_2/single/?p=10092440&t=30509537 (http://w11.zetaboards.com/UK_Debate_Mk_2/single/?p=10092440&t=30509537)
with a later post (http://w11.zetaboards.com/UK_Debate_Mk_2/single/?p=10092654&t=30509537):
Quote from: Steve K,(time=1519739615)
Well no one has challenged the analysis of the OP
So here's my conclusion
IF you believe the UK can have a significantly beneficial trading future outside the EU and/or you believe that the EU migration would have continued unmitigated then you should be a Leaver
OR
IF you believe the UK will significantly lose out on beneficial trade outside the EU and/or you believe that the EU migration would decline to tolerable levels then you should be a Remainer
Just about all the rest is minor or false
____________________________________________________________________________________________ My real issue is there is no evidence any of May, Fox or Boris could get us that "significantly beneficial trading future outside the EU" if they found it stuffed up their arse
David Davis would stand a chance if they'd just resign, die or perhaps preferably just shut up trying to appease Rees-Mogg
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on March 10, 2018, 04:02:13 PM
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see if he really does ground all the planes or not won't we...?
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on March 10, 2018, 04:04:21 PM
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see if he really does ground all the planes or not won't we...?
I wouldn't hold your breath
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Grumpmeister on July 26, 2018, 10:16:57 PM
Was thinking about this the other day and I realised that the EU has even more to lose than tourism from flights from the UK. The Civil Aviation Authority is the third largest entity of it's kind in the world and governs a significant area, one that transatlantic flights from EU countries desperately need access in order to keep costs down. Losing access to that airspace would dramatically increase the length of flights leading to increased fuel costs and reduced turnaround meaning less flights which will in turn drive the prices up.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 26, 2018, 10:31:48 PM
Was thinking about this the other day and I realised that the EU has even more to lose than tourism from flights from the UK. The Civil Aviation Authority is the third largest entity of it's kind in the world and governs a significant area, one that transatlantic flights from EU countries desperately need access in order to keep costs down. Losing access to that airspace would dramatically increase the length of flights leading to increased fuel costs and reduced turnaround meaning less flights which will in turn drive the prices up.
I'll say it again it's not the flights to and from the UK from airlines of either the UK or other country that's the real risk - well assuming the Jihadist wing of Rees Moggerisism doesn't get their idiot 'make it as hard as possible and make it now' wish - but how does RyanAir (or Norwegian etc) get permission to fly UK to say Paris if the EU says UK airlines can't sell Rome to Paris flights. Air Canada even with the CETA treaty isn't allow to sell tickets from London to Paris let alone Rome Paris on its planes is it?
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Grumpmeister on July 26, 2018, 10:53:06 PM
In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 26, 2018, 11:28:36 PM
In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.
Nope
In or out of an EU airport to/from country of origin is a bilateral
Between airports not of the country of origin is single market access. Canada (which I just picked as an example) doesn't have single market access, if we don't negotiate it than the same issues start to apply to our airlines and EU ones
Brexit is not simple, the devil is always in details the public and politicians here and in the EU didn't want to think about but will bite them in the bum if they don't watch it.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Grumpmeister on July 27, 2018, 01:23:31 AM
In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.
Nope
In or out of an EU airport to/from country of origin is a bilateral
Between airports not of the country of origin is single market access. Canada (which I just picked as an example) doesn't have single market access, if we don't negotiate it than the same issues start to apply to our airlines and EU ones
Brexit is not simple, the devil is always in details the public and politicians here and in the EU didn't want to think about but will bite them in the bum if they don't watch it.
In the case of any airline based outside of the EU trying to purchase route licenses into France even from other airports within the EU would still end up 'requiring' a 'bilateral' agreement for one very important reason. The largest French airline is Air France-KLM and is part owned by the state (I believe the current stake is somewhere between 15% and 20%). Given that there are already a number of examples of the French government ignoring EU laws and regulations (Shengen comes to mind straight off the bat as the Calais camps would never have existed under the terms of the agreement because the occupants would have already been settled elsewhere) do you really think that France wouldn't put it's own interests first.
But getting back to what I initially said, and I may be being overly optimistic here, but anyone in the EU with a hint of common sense connected to the Route licenses will see an immediate and massive economic impact from shutting down flights from the UK, and even more so when in response the CAA airspace is restricted. To give you an idea of how big an impact it will be, a flight from Paris to Washington DC is currently around 6200km but without access to UK airspace and having to reroute via say Madrid you end up travelling around 7150km instead, a flight from Berlin to Washington DC is around 6720km and going via Madrid would add approximately 1860km. Given the additional operating costs I can't see the airlines being able to justify this economically so you will most likely end up with a much smaller number of transatlantic flights from only one or two airports, having looked at the CAA map I'd say most likely flying from Madrid or Barcelona as you can arc flights from those two airports around UK airspace fairly easily without adding too much to the flight duration.
If that was to happen, given the State of Spain at the moment this could (and quite likely would) have a massive negative impact on the economies of France and Germany. Rampant unemployment and a government desperate for an influx of capital would make relocating business from Paris, Berlin and Munich to name a few a far more tempting prospect for a lot of multinational and global businesses.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 05:19:02 AM
In order for Non EU based airlines to run flights either into or inside EU airspace then they need both route licenses and bilateral agreements with the specific countries involved. The fact that Air Canada isn't able to run flights from London or Rome to Paris would indicate that this is not an Air Canada/EU issue but an Air Canada/French government one.
Nope
In or out of an EU airport to/from country of origin is a bilateral
Between airports not of the country of origin is single market access. Canada (which I just picked as an example) doesn't have single market access, if we don't negotiate it than the same issues start to apply to our airlines and EU ones
Brexit is not simple, the devil is always in details the public and politicians here and in the EU didn't want to think about but will bite them in the bum if they don't watch it.
In the case of any airline based outside of the EU trying to purchase route licenses into France even from other airports within the EU would still end up 'requiring' a 'bilateral' agreement for one very important reason. The largest French airline is Air France-KLM and is part owned by the state (I believe the current stake is somewhere between 15% and 20%). Given that there are already a number of examples of the French government ignoring EU laws and regulations (Shengen comes to mind straight off the bat as the Calais camps would never have existed under the terms of the agreement because the occupants would have already been settled elsewhere) do you really think that France wouldn't put it's own interests first.
But getting back to what I initially said, and I may be being overly optimistic here, but anyone in the EU with a hint of common sense connected to the Route licenses will see an immediate and massive economic impact from shutting down flights from the UK, and even more so when in response the CAA airspace is restricted. To give you an idea of how big an impact it will be, a flight from Paris to Washington DC is currently around 6200km but without access to UK airspace and having to reroute via say Madrid you end up travelling around 7150km instead, a flight from Berlin to Washington DC is around 6720km and going via Madrid would add approximately 1860km. Given the additional operating costs I can't see the airlines being able to justify this economically so you will most likely end up with a much smaller number of transatlantic flights from only one or two airports, having looked at the CAA map I'd say most likely flying from Madrid or Barcelona as you can arc flights from those two airports around UK airspace fairly easily without adding too much to the flight duration.
If that was to happen, given the State of Spain at the moment this could (and quite likely would) have a massive negative impact on the economies of France and Germany. Rampant unemployment and a government desperate for an influx of capital would make relocating business from Paris, Berlin and Munich to name a few a far more tempting prospect for a lot of multinational and global businesses.
Precisely.
It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?"
Where xxxxxxx is anything from having clean water, health and safety regulations, workers rights and flying aeroplanes...
The free market is a restrictive customs union. The fact hat certain xxxxxxxxs will be more difficult/expensive after leaving the EU is yet another negative feature of EU membership - not a positive bonus of the union.
BTW, after saying Ryanair would be grounded, not invest in the UK, etc. did't they recently pour millions into Southampton or somewhere...?
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 07:58:36 AM
. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .
How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?
We didn't
Whut? eeek:
Prior to the EU we couldn't fly to anywhere but the UK...?
Not what I said
You couldn't embark and disembark on a UK airline between two airports in non UK countries (the Empire and later Commonwealth may be exception) And in much of the world the same still applies.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 08:36:30 AM
. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .
How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?
We didn't
Whut? eeek:
Prior to the EU we couldn't fly to anywhere but the UK...?
Not what I said
You couldn't embark and disembark on a UK airline between two airports in non UK countries (the Empire and later Commonwealth may be exception) And in much of the world the same still applies.
So it isn't a Brexit issue then...?
And if ROW copes it probably almost certainly isn't an issue at all...
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 09:38:05 AM
. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .
How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?
We didn't
Whut? eeek:
Prior to the EU we couldn't fly to anywhere but the UK...?
Not what I said
You couldn't embark and disembark on a UK airline between two airports in non UK countries (the Empire and later Commonwealth may be exception) And in much of the world the same still applies.
So it isn't a Brexit issue then...?
And if ROW copes it probably almost certainly isn't an issue at all...
Well it is a Brexit issue as it removes all UK airports and UK flagged carriers from those 6th and 7th air freedoms that go beyond the Chicago treaty
The ROW copes either because they have large internal markets (eg USA), free trade blocs (eg NAFTA) or in many cases whopping high prices and dodgy planes
Those that want no deal ought to be careful what they wish for
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 10:24:50 AM
. .It comes down to, "how did we manage to do xxxxxxx before the EU" and "and how do non-EU countries manage to do xxxxxxxx?" . .
How did we ever manage to have airlines fly third country routes before the EU?
We didn't
Whut? eeek:
Prior to the EU we couldn't fly to anywhere but the UK...?
Not what I said
You couldn't embark and disembark on a UK airline between two airports in non UK countries (the Empire and later Commonwealth may be exception) And in much of the world the same still applies.
So it isn't a Brexit issue then...?
And if ROW copes it probably almost certainly isn't an issue at all...
Well it is a Brexit issue as it removes all UK airports and UK flagged carriers from those 6th and 7th air freedoms that go beyond the Chicago treaty
The ROW copes either because they have large internal markets (eg USA), free trade blocs (eg NAFTA) or in many cases whopping high prices and dodgy planes
Those that want no deal ought to be careful what they wish for
Well, there is nothing like a sweeping generalisation to secure your argument is there…?
In December I sat on the Interwebz here and bought an airline ticket with €uros from my Cyprus bank account.
In April I flew Larnaca >>> Dubai >>> Sydney >>> Auckland >>> Dubai >>> Larnaca.
You’ll note that several of those countries are outside the EU yet I suffered not ‘whopping high prices nor dodgy planes’…
And there are what, 100,000 flights per day, 36 million per year that arrive safely between the 195 countries of the world?
The problem is that remainers always assume that what the EU does is ‘best practice’. In reality, most of what the EU does is protectionism for the 28 27 which inevitably means higher prices and less choice for consumers.
What is the reason that any airline from any country (that meets relevant safety standards) shouldn't be allowed to operate to/from any other airport inside or outside the EU?
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 12:16:37 PM
So as sweeping generalisations go you are saying Dubai's 'Open Skies' policy (or Singapore's) holds sway over all European, USA and Asian airports for all airlines that don't even fly to Dubai does it?
noooo:
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 12:43:26 PM
So as sweeping generalisations go you are saying Dubai's 'Open Skies' policy (or Singapore's) holds sway over all European, USA and Asian airports for all airlines that don't even fly to Dubai does it?
noooo:
What does that even mean...? Shrugs:
I'm merely pointing out that without the EU literally millions of flights manage to take off and land to and from thousands of destinations every year.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 01:34:02 PM
So as sweeping generalisations go you are saying Dubai's 'Open Skies' policy (or Singapore's) holds sway over all European, USA and Asian airports for all airlines that don't even fly to Dubai does it?
noooo:
What does that even mean...? Shrugs:
I'm merely pointing out that without the EU literally millions of flights manage to take off and land to and from thousands of destinations every year.
And millions of those are by bilateral not multilateral agreements. Dubai and Singapore are very much not the norm
I'm merely pointing out that without a deal that goes beyond the Chicago treaty, O'Leary is right that he has a problem operating his most profitable routes after 2020 and he won't be alone in those problems. And if the ultraLeavers have their 'flounce now' way that problem becomes March 30th 2019
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 02:03:23 PM
So as sweeping generalisations go you are saying Dubai's 'Open Skies' policy (or Singapore's) holds sway over all European, USA and Asian airports for all airlines that don't even fly to Dubai does it?
noooo:
What does that even mean...? Shrugs:
I'm merely pointing out that without the EU literally millions of flights manage to take off and land to and from thousands of destinations every year.
And millions of those are by bilateral not multilateral agreements. Dubai and Singapore are very much not the norm
I'm merely pointing out that without a deal that goes beyond the Chicago treaty, O'Leary is right that he has a problem operating his most profitable routes after 2020 and he won't be alone in those problems. And if the ultraLeavers have their 'flounce now' way that problem becomes March 30th 2019
And I'm merely pointing out that millions of flights every year manage without the involvement of the EU.
And it is nothing to do with 'UltraLeavers' or 'flouncing'. We voted to leave and triggered Article 50 as required by EU rules.
If the EU decides to 'punish' the UK (pour encourager les autres) by not allowing flights on March 30th that were completely legal on the 29th then she (as Grumpmeister pointed out earlier in this thread) will do herself as much damage as she does the UK. And give yet another reason for leaving in the first place.
They've had literally years to sort this out. That they have not done so is not a reflection on 'UltraLeavers' or any flouncing on the part of the UK.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 02:25:06 PM
Yes they should have sorted it out long ago but Boris pissed off the EU with his boorish cake and eat it and go whistle statements, May got herself a minority government stuck with an Irish problem and now we have ultraLeavers saying we should just walk away with no agreement now and the Rees Moggers saying just leave with no agreement on March 19th
Neither is a constructive way forward is it. I still believe a deal will be done but I'm not going to pretend there are no airline consequences of one not happening
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 02:40:16 PM
Yes they should have sorted it out long ago but Boris pissed off the EU with his boorish cake and eat it and go whistle statements, May got herself a minority government stuck with an Irish problem and now we have ultraLeavers saying we should just walk away with no agreement now and the Rees Moggers saying just leave with no agreement on March 19th
Neither is a constructive way forward is it. I still believe a deal will be done but I'm not going to pretend there are no airline consequences of one not happening
Blaming everything on Boris, May and Mogg isn't very constructive either. ::)
'Tis about time that remainers looked towards their beloved EU and their attitude towards Brexit for the cause of some of these apparently insoluble problems...
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 05:40:32 PM
“beloved EU”
happy001
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Uncle Mort on July 27, 2018, 05:46:19 PM
Notice you don't deny that the EU is negotiating in bad faith.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on July 27, 2018, 05:57:16 PM
They've no interest in a compromise. That's bad faith. Even a car dealer would meet you halfway.
I haven't seen them offered a workable one yet. May seems to have everything but go and talk to the Irish who are the ones she needs to compromise.
I believe the EU made it clear they'd accept us having a Swiss position, the one that veteran leaver Danial Hannan said pre referendum was what we should aim for. But Davis et al said they wanted no part of that.
Noticed how quiet Hannan has been lately?
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Uncle Mort on July 27, 2018, 08:32:51 PM
I can't see any resolution on the Irish border question that would please anyone. May is doomed and probably so is any deal. It's going to be a hard Brexit.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on July 27, 2018, 08:48:30 PM
I can't see any resolution on the Irish border question that would please anyone. May is doomed and probably so is any deal. It's going to be a hard Brexit.
It's a mess but I've got more faith
The big EU players are going to start putting overt pressure on Ireland pointing out how bad a hard Brexit is for them (even worse than for us) and how much they need the big EU players on their side if Ireland is going to continue to get its gift horse a day position in the EU.
May would be smart to start talking with rather than at the Irish but if she doesn't then her survival depends on Corbyn and him not forcing a vote on Hard Brexit. He'll just choose his moment.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Uncle Mort on August 19, 2018, 12:11:25 PM
Another remoaner wasting his money:
Brexit vote campaign gets £1m from Superdry co-founder (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45235655)
When are they going to accept we are leaving. noooo:
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on August 19, 2018, 12:14:05 PM
As far as I'm concerned we joined the EEC not the EU.
I don't remember agreeing to the move away from an economic union to a supranational union and that is what what a majority voted to leave.
I would have voted to leave had I not been hospitalised a few days before the vote.
Meh, the EU is finished anyway... even if we stay in we'll be 'out' soon along with the other 27...
We live in exciting times! :thumbsup:
Nah. I could see Cyprus flouncing out if Greece leaves but all the evidence has been that Greece will take the pain of staying in. Coincidentally today is the day Greece completes its eurozone bailout programme.
But the core of the EU has its grumbles but that's it.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on August 20, 2018, 08:53:23 AM
As far as I'm concerned we joined the EEC not the EU.
I don't remember agreeing to the move away from an economic union to a supranational union and that is what what a majority voted to leave.
I would have voted to leave had I not been hospitalised a few days before the vote.
Meh, the EU is finished anyway... even if we stay in we'll be 'out' soon along with the other 27...
We live in exciting times! :thumbsup:
Nah. I could see Cyprus flouncing out if Greece leaves but all the evidence has been that Greece will take the pain of staying in. Coincidentally today is the day Greece completes its eurozone bailout programme.
But the core of the EU has its grumbles but that's it.
It may not be a country that pulls it apart - the €uro might be the end of it...
We'll never agree of course but I'd put money on it being very different in five years.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on August 20, 2018, 09:04:42 AM
As far as I'm concerned we joined the EEC not the EU.
I don't remember agreeing to the move away from an economic union to a supranational union and that is what what a majority voted to leave.
I would have voted to leave had I not been hospitalised a few days before the vote.
Meh, the EU is finished anyway... even if we stay in we'll be 'out' soon along with the other 27...
We live in exciting times! :thumbsup:
Nah. I could see Cyprus flouncing out if Greece leaves but all the evidence has been that Greece will take the pain of staying in. Coincidentally today is the day Greece completes its eurozone bailout programme.
But the core of the EU has its grumbles but that's it.
It may not be a country that pulls it apart - the €uro might be the end of it...
We'll never agree of course but I'd put money on it being very different in five years.
And that's the tragedy, not that it ever was like the Daily Misery told its readers it was, the EU was reforming. The core countries had had enough of the poorer ones taking the piss.
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Barman on August 20, 2018, 10:01:07 AM
As far as I'm concerned we joined the EEC not the EU.
I don't remember agreeing to the move away from an economic union to a supranational union and that is what what a majority voted to leave.
I would have voted to leave had I not been hospitalised a few days before the vote.
Meh, the EU is finished anyway... even if we stay in we'll be 'out' soon along with the other 27...
We live in exciting times! :thumbsup:
Nah. I could see Cyprus flouncing out if Greece leaves but all the evidence has been that Greece will take the pain of staying in. Coincidentally today is the day Greece completes its eurozone bailout programme.
But the core of the EU has its grumbles but that's it.
It may not be a country that pulls it apart - the €uro might be the end of it...
We'll never agree of course but I'd put money on it being very different in five years.
And that's the tragedy, not that it ever was like the Daily Misery told its readers it was, the EU was reforming. The core countries had had enough of the poorer ones taking the piss.
You may say that; I couldn't possibly comment... whistle:
Title: Re: From the Fantastic Headlines thread - No Fly After Brexit
Post by: Steve on August 20, 2018, 10:43:28 AM
The 6 weeks following the bank holiday to the Tory conference are going to be interesting. The government is due to publish it's official 'no deal ' advice in that time and they need to read better than those sectoral analyses they had to be forced to reveal earlier this year.